Política monetária e ciclo financeiro global: uma análise sobre o caso brasileiro durante o regime de metas de inflação

Abstract

The present article investigates the consequences of an increase in the benchmark interest rate on price level stability. The objective is to evaluate the Brazilian monetary policy for the period between 2000 and 2014, characterized by the Inflation Target Regime (ITR). Regarding this, the study considers the post-Keynesian critique to the New Macroeconomic Consensus, as well as the discussion centered on the impacts of the global financial cycle on emerging and developing countries. In empirical terms, the estimation of the Error Correction Autoregressive Vectors model (VEC) presents results in line with the critical literature about ITR. Thus, a rise in the interest rate has a mixed impact on inflation rate. On the one hand, a contractionary monetary policy has an initial inflationary effect due to the price-puzzle phenomenon; on the other hand, an increase in interest rates tends to generate currency overvaluation, which helps to contain inflation. In addition, a currency overvaluation is also related to the rise of the global financial cycle, facilitating the achievement of the target during periods.